The beginning of breast development is amongst the initial indications of puberty in girls; breast buds and pubic hair appear close together. Breast development usually begins about one year prior to the menstrual period starting. The growth takes a number of years.
o In the initial stage (in babyhood), breasts are flat.
o Then is the breast bud stage. In this stage, the breast and nipple are raised to some extent like milk ducts as well as the fat tissue start forming. Moreover, the areola also starts to increase.
o Then the breast begins to get larger. Normally this happens primarily in a conical shape, and afterward in a rounder shape. The areola starts to darken.
o In these early stages of breast expansion, it is the hormone estrogen which drives the growth, resulting fat to be deposited in breast, and milk ducts to develop. This is the moment for the largest development in size.
When the girl is in the menstruation period, the ovaries begin producing progesterone and that alter things. Progesterone results in the milk glands to grow at the ends of milk ducts. This growth reasons less noticeable development size-wise, however is very significant for the job.
Several however not all girls go during a stage where the aerola and the nipple generate a different mound from the real breast. In the duration of breast growth, you might experience some hurt and pain or softness in your breasts. This is very common. Furthermore, the skin might be itching, which is an indication that skin is stretching.
The entire procedure from breast bud stage till pubertal growth generally takes around 3-5 years, although for several girls it might take about ten years. After breast growth in puberty, breast is yet not considered to be fully developed; just pregnancy gets about the fullness of breast development and growth.
The breast development could begin as soon as eight years or as delayed as thirteen years. If the girl doesn’t have breast buds or pubic hair, which is the initial indications of puberty, it is suggested to visit a doctor by 14 years of age. If a girl does not get her menses by age 15, this is known as delayed puberty, and there are a number of possible reasons for it. It is suggested to see a doctor.
Although most of this growth is over in some years after getting your menses, a lot of girls get somewhat rounder as well as fuller breasts in their early 20’s. It is the era whey they get more feminine and mature look with “curves”, leaving skinny teen look behind.
Occasionally, the girl’s breasts keep increasing and keep developing past the typical growth time frame, and turn out to be very large which might cause sagging breast. This state where the breasts do not stop growing is known as juvenile gigantomastia and juvenile macromastia, also known as virginal hypertrophy of breasts. This lady might have suffered from it.
The Stanley MaxSteel 83-069 Multi-Angle Vise is an amazing vice for those looking to work on a multitude of projects. It is specifically designed to fit snuggly on just about any work surface and has removeable jaw pads to protect surfaces from scratches.
With its swivel ball design, the Stanley MaxSteel 83-069 Multi-Angle Vise can be moved and locked in almost infinite positions, making it one of the most versatile vices on the market. Another cool feature of the Stanley MaxSteel 83-069 Multi-Angel Vice isit’s durable cast aluminium and steel construction, making it sturdy and durable enough for just about any job you can throw at it.
- Can be easily clamped to any table.
- Table clamp surfaces are rubber coated for surface protection.
- Can hold objects at any angle.
- Clamp faces have removeable rubber pads.
- Vice is small and portable.
- Great customer service.
- Well constructed.
- Does not have teeth in the jaws.
- Not designed for large heavy duty projects.
- Hard to find at local retailers.
You should buy this vice because:
- Excellent space saving vice for the price.
- Is designed to clamp onto any surface.
- Will not harm surfaces due to removeable jaw pads.
This vice is perfect for:
- People who do a lot of woodworking, such as wood carving, cane making, or furniture work.
- People who do crafts involving small to medium sized objects that need to be held in place.
- People who need a reliable portable vice to take with them on the go.
Let’s take a look at all of this vice’s features.
- Infinite lockable positioning with swivel ball design.
- Easily attaches to most surfaces with integral screw clamp.
- Durable cast aluminum and steel construction.
- Removeable jaw pads protect surfaces from damage.
- 8 inch jaw opening.
- Weighs 3.6 pounds.
- Dimensions: 9 inches by 8 inches by 3.5 inches.
Overall, for the price, you won’t find a better deal on a vice grip that offers as much versatility when dealing with small jobs. Sure, there are better vice grips out there, but you’ll be paying a lot more for only a slight increase in performance.
So you’d like to learn how to become a notary in New York? You’re in luck! We’ve got all the information you need to send you on your way!
You are eligible to become a notary in the state of New York if:
- You are either a citizen of the United States or resident alien with a green card
- You are a resident of New York State or at least have a place of business or an office in New York State.
- You are at least 18 years of age or older by the date noted on your application
- You are able to read, write and understand English
- You pass the state exam for first-time applicants
Also, you are ineligible if…
- You have been convicted of a violation of the Selective Service Act of 1917, and/or the Selective Service Act of 1940
- You have been convicted of a felony in New York state or any other state or United States territory
To start the process of becoming a notary, the first thing you must do is obtain an application. Unfortunately, online applications are not available at this time, so you have three options for obtaining one. You can fax a request for an application to (518) 473-6648. You can call the Division of Licensing Services at one of the numbers closest to your area listed below:
- New York City: (212) 417-5747
- Albany:(518) 474-4429
- Binghamton: (607) 721-8757
- Buffalo: (716) 847-7110
- Syracuse:(315) 428-4258
- Utica: (315) 793-2533
- Hauppauge: (631) 952-6579
Finally, you can mail a request for an application to:
The Division of Licensing Services
PO Box 22001
Albany, NY 12201-2001
Take note: If you’d like to use express mail or FedEx in order to expedite the request for an application, you should mail your request instead to:
Alfred E. Smith Building
80 South Swan Street – 10th Floor
Albany, New York 12210
You have your application in hand, let’s talk about the exam. Don’t panic! If you familiarize and study the Notary Public License Law for the state of New York, you’ll do just fine. Everything you need to know to pass the exam is available here.
Once you have studied and feel confident that you are prepared for the test, visit the Notary Exam official schedule site and choose an exam site that is closest to your area. Exam spots are walk-in and on a first-come-first-served basis, so it’s best that you consider arriving a little early. Make sure you bring the $15.00 exam fee in the form of check or money order made out to Department of State (MasterCard or Visa are also accepted), and one form of current, photo ID from the approved list below:
- driver’s license
- state issued identification, such as a non-driver ID
- military ID
- United States Passport
- United States INS issued ID
- Certificate of US citizenship
The exam is “pass or fail.” You must get at least 70% of the multiple choice questions correct to “pass” the exam. If – no, when – you pass, you will be notified by mail. In the mailing, you will receive a notice saying you passed. Following the instructions in the mailing, including completing the application you received earlier, the original (not a copy) notice verifying you passed the exam, a $60.00 non-refundable registration fee, and a notarized Oath of Office Statement, you must then mail all of the above to:
The Division of Licensing Services
PO Box 22001
Albany, NY 12201-2001
After all those steps are taken, the Secretary of State will send your commission and your official signature, along with your oath of office, will take effect. You will be sent a notary public identification card with your name, address, county and commission.
After you receive your identification card, you’ll want to consider supplies. Even though in New York you’re not required to use a Notary Stamp/Official Seal or an official notary journal, you might want to consider them, as they’ll make your job a lot easier – not to mention that careful record keeping is always a good idea. Any of these items can be purchased at a number of different businesses and websites; a simple search for “Notary Supplies” in your favorite search engine or your area New York Yellow Pages will send you in the right direction.
One other thing before you start your commission, although it’s not required in New York State, you may want to consider some training classes or seminars. We strongly recommend this because knowledge is never a bad thing, and the more you know the easier your job will be. Some insurance companies in New York and other private businesses offer seminars and training sessions; there are many online courses available as well. It’s worth the effort to look into classes such as these; if nothing else than to keep yourself current with the local laws and regulations.
You’re officially a Notary if you’ve followed all of the steps outlined above! Congratulations! Make sure to contact us with your success stories. We always love to hear from you!
Are you conscious about the dressing of your teenage boy? Are you looking for casual and relaxed boys wear? Teenage boys wish to wear relaxed dresses that can let them play and roam around. Most of the boys do not like to go for shopping with their parents as they have developed their style and comfort; they desire dresses that are sporty and easy.
Most of the parents hope to shop for their teenage boys, but they forget to follow what their sons crave for. If you want to buy anything for a teenage boy, first know about his choice and opinion, give him some time and try to know him fully. I can bet you, more than 90 % boys will ask for casual wear rather than formal or restricted wears.
Teenage boys often go with trends; they simply like to follow it without recognizing it fully. Presenting themselves up-to-date and most stylish among the peers is the dream and trance of the new generation; they are in competition with one another and you simply cannot stop them. So, it is better to let them choose their dresses at this age.
If your son selects any dress that goes mainly with style, you need to consider if it is comfortable or not? Do not go for style only; make your son go for the comfort and ease factor when going for dressing; he will surely understand it. You need to give him models or simply ask him to try it and feel the comfort level. He will admit the actuality only when he will feel it by himself.
Try various styles and buy from more than one shop as it will leave a good impact on the traits of your teen. Try to follow diverse patterns in dressing as the same scheming will leave a boring impact. You must be vigilant about the colours and shades of the clothes of your son. Do not go for the same shades and tones; try unique but suitable colours. Make sure that you do not put odd or gauche colours for your son. You should have proper knowledge about the colours that are restricted to boys and girls as well. No parent would like to make fun of his son in front of others while wearing pink t-shirt.
You can buy online; there are ample websites that offer great packages and deals to the parents. They have experts that guide you in newest trends in unfussy wears; you can just sit with your son and select any wear for him. Most of the sites catch your interest by offering price series and colour selections.
Casual clothing is unlike the formal one; your son can try any style in it. You need to be with him just to guide him. Teenage boys get crazy about few and limited colours; here you need to tell the significance of other colours as well. Casual wear does not signify that you have the liberty to wear socks with sandals.
Teenage boys are fond of wearing hand bands and chains; accept the taste of your son. If you do not get time to shop with your son, ask your daughter to do this job for you, as it will be a good companionship for your son.
Snapfish.com is a well known online retailer of photo based gifts and other products and services. Despite offering a plethora of photo printed products, like calendars, traditional prints, and even drink coasters, Snapfish seems to be best well known for their exquisite photo books. Photo books are created by the user, who uploads a set of their own digital photographs from their hard drive to the Snapfish website, and uses their robust editing software to assemble them into a bound hardcover book with text, backgrounds, borders, and other fun and appealing features. Photo book prices start at a low $19.99 for an 8×11 hardcover photo book with a linen cover, and 20 full color pages.
Before you can start designing a photo book with Snapfish you must first register on the website. To create a photobook, navigate to that section of the website and select the size you want to go with. For hardcover options they offer 8×8, 8×11, and 12×12. There are two different options for the 8×11 available – Leather or Linen covers with a “window” (showing a portion of the image on your first page), or a printed cover or jacket. You make these selections before entering the designing software, but you can change it later if you desire.
Before you start designing your photobook, you should first select and upload all of the images you want to use in that photo book. Once all of your images are uploaded, Snapfish offers to automatically design and fill in the photobook for you. While this makes your job super simple, it may not do things exactly as you would. Images are filled in in the order they’re uploaded, and page layouts are somewhat random. The design system will lay out your images in plenty of different ways. Sometimes it will put two images on a page with a text area, or one full page image with no text, or sometimes three images on one page and a page of text on the next. This is a great option for people who don’t want to spend a ton of time working on the book, but takes some of the personal touch out.
If you really want to dive in and make the best photo book you can, then you’re in luck – Snapfish’s design system is extremely robust. If you try to insert an image that is low resolution and won’t print well, you will be warned. You can also do photo adjustments from the design area, like resizing and cropping, flipping, rotating, red eye removal, color enhancement, brightness and contrast, and even color conversion (black and white, sepia, colorize).
You can also select page backgrounds and designs. You choose a “theme” before entering the designing area, but you can change every page individually if you prefer it that way. Just select the “Backgrounds” tab and drag and drop what you want onto the page. The “Layouts” tab is where you can choose how many images you want per page, if (and where) you want to place text, and the size and placement of images. There are a total of 78 different layouts to choose from, as well as “magic” layouts that allow you a much more customized layout experience. You can even add borders to your images here, but that option isn’t necessarily compatible with all layouts.
The hardest part of designing photo books is keeping track of which images you have and haven’t used, so that you don’t end up with duplicates, or leave some out. Snapfish makes your image management easy, however, by placing green checks next to images you’ve used. The full list of your images (and these checks) is found on the right hand side of the design area. If you decide you want to remove an image from use, or from your list, you can do that in this area as well.
Once you’ve completed your photobook, you can view a 3D rendering of what it should look like by clicking “Preview” at the bottom of the design area page. This is a navigable preview that lets you view pages in order, like you would if you were looking at the real book.
Snapfish.com makes some of the best photo books on the web, and hopefully with this article you are now better prepared to navigate their website, and design the best photobook possible.
There is a lot to be shared about the connection between drinking water, hemorrhoids (piles) and excessive alcohol consumption. The news media, health blogs and healthy living magazines constantly remind people to drink more water for better health.
We all know water is better for us than soda, sugary drinks and all the other liquids most people prefer to drink than simple water. But we all have cravings. I used to drink lots of soda thinking I was getting enough water from it.
These same health sources also warn that excessive alcohol consumption and hemorrhoids are a painful reality for many heavy drinkers. Piles are inflamed anal veins that grow into small or large masses inside or outside of the anus.
They are commonly known as internal or external hemorrhoids or external piles and internal piles. Hemorrhoid symptoms are chronic itching in and around the rectal cavity. They also cause a stinging burning pain that makes walking or even sitting extremely painful. Severe inflammation of anus veins can cause bleeding from the anal region that can be scary.
Let’s look at drinking water, excessive alcohol consumption and hemorrhoids a little more closely.
Drinking Water and Hemorrhoids
Water is absolutely essential in digestion, absorption of nutrients and bodily waste elimination through urination and bowel movements. Health experts recommend as a general rule of thumb to drink at least eight 8-ounce glasses of fluid a day. If you’re exercising or losing bodily fluids more rapidly you’ll need to drink more, but the “8 x 8” rule is a good to gauge follow.
Drinking water helps prevent chronic constipation, which can play a big role in developing piles. Straining when passing bowel movements can lead to blood swollen veins around the anal region. When a person’s body is not properly hydrated from drinking enough water constipation can happen that causes painful piles to develop internally or externally.
Dehydration is significant contributor to hemorrhoids. Drinking plenty of water can greatly reduce the risk of getting this condition that effects millions of people yearly. It can be caused by digestive problems due to poor body hydration. You would be amazed at how many cases could be prevented using the “8×8” rule.
Chronic diarrhea is another major cause of piles forming. Diarrhea’s spastic motion adds a tremendous amount of unhealthy pressure to the anus that can cause straining like with constipation. Strong spastic pressure on the anus that can also cause anal fissures besides inflamed anal veins.
When people do develop hemorrhoids their doctors always tell them to drink plenty of water to help flush out toxins while keeping their digestive system healthy to prevent a future outbreak.
If you don’t like the taste of tap water or want to live eco-friendly avoiding bottled water invest in an affordable water purifier for the kitchen faucet.
As a former hemorrhoid sufferer who went through laser surgery in Los Angeles I make sure I drink plenty of water daily. Hydrate to beat them!
Excessive Alcohol Consumption and Hemorrhoids
By no means am I telling people not to drink. I enjoy one glass of red wine with dinner most nights. My doctor told me it was good for my heart in moderation. If I’m at a dinner party it’s not uncommon for me to have two or three glasses of red wine while enjoying good company.
When I go fishing or camping with family and friends I enjoy more than a few bottles of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. As I’ve got older in life I’ve learned my drinking limits and no when to not push it to excessive alcohol consumption.
Where excessive alcohol consumption and hemorrhoids becomes a dangerous mix is when it comes to heavy or binge drinking. College was my first experience with excessive alcohol consumption and piles. I wasn’t drinking enough water or eating right. My sophomore year I developed a very small external hemorrhoid.
It still hurt like an itchy fiery bee sting and I was embarrassed to tell my friends. My parents took me to a doctor who prescribed me a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) to treat it and eliminate it. The growth was very small and was caught early, so it could be treated without surgery or banding. There are other many excellent hemorrhoidal products you can buy online for hemorrhoid relief and treatment.
Alcohol dehydrates the body badly and robs it of precious vitamins. Most people when they drink alcohol skip drinking water in between alcoholic beverages and don’t take a vitamin for a day or night of drinking.
Heavy drinkers have a higher risk of getting this rectal condition because of alcohol dehydration and lack of vitamins in their bodies. It’s recommended to take a multivitamin 4 hours before drinking alcohol. When you drink alcohol make sure to take your vitamins.
Drinking too much alcohol can cause severe constipation and small, dry stools that are tough to pass during bowel movements. The strain and pressure to pass a bowel movement makes the veins in and around the anus inflamed. This is a major factor to internal and external piles developing.
People that consume alcohol excessively will commonly experience digestive and bowel movement problems. This is because alcohol in any common form (beer, wine, whiskey etc.) acts as a diuretic that will dehydrate the alcohol drinker.
A person who is dehydrated normally experiences constipation and is forced to severely strain when passing bowel movements. Binge drinking can also lead to highly elevated blood pressure, which in turn increases the pressure to delicate veins in and around the anus.
The important thing is to drink water even when you’re drinking alcohol to stay well hydrated. Dehydration, constipation and diarrhea contribute heavily to hemorrhoid risk or can make a current hemorrhoid condition worse. Water is your friend when it comes to hemorrhoids. Excessive alcohol consumption and hemorrhoids are two things to avoid if you can.
If you need to generate leads of people interested in getting updated car insurance rates, here is a script that works great. All of the verification questions are asked first to build trust with the prospect before asking for new information. Don’t over think your lead generation campaign, often the simplest processes yield the best results. Start off with a short greeting and explain the reason for the call within the first 30 seconds or risk losing the prospect’s attention. Verify first, ask for new information second. Use verification questions to build report with prospects before asking for new information. For example, “I show your address as…”, versus, “how much is your monthly auto insurance policy at the moment?”
Write out rebuttals that the telemarketer might need to handle common objections. Think of these as opportunities to give more information as well as steer the conversation back to generating a lead. Generating interest and doing some simple verification work should be the primary goal of each call. Don’t make the mistake of trying to pack too much into each call.
“Hi, may I speak with __________? Hi _________, this is AGENT NAME, I’m calling from XXX car insurance, I’m just calling to verify your information so we can provide you with updated auto insurance quotes, I show your name as NAME and your address as ADDRESS in CITY, STATE, and the zipcode is ZIPCODE I also have your email as EMAIL ADDRESS, is this correct?
Thank you, and what is your marital status? (single or married).
Are there any additional drivers we should include? (if yes get name, date of birth).
We understand people’s vehicles often change, so what vehicle do you currently insure? I just need the year, make and model.
Are there any additional vehicles? (if so need the year, make and model).
Are you currently a homeowner? (own/rent)
And who is your current car insurance company?
Thank you, and finally I have your date of birth listed as/what is your date of birth? (if not listed in contact info)
To make sure we can save you the most money we will have a local insurance agent contact you so that you receive the best rate and coverage possible. Thank you for your time and have a great day.”
Side Note: This script works great with a web-based lead form, you can quickly create a form that follows this format in Google Docs and will deliver results to an online spreadsheet that updates in real time.
I have been living on the 60/40 budgeting rule for more than three years now. I had read on this subject in a magazine article and in a conversation with a colleague, I found out a simple system in which my colleague has been using for years.
The Rule (60%)
The 60/40 rule simply says that 60% of your gross income should go to Committed or Fixed expenses. These expenses are your Overhead expenses, meaning the basic things you need to pay to survive. They include:
• Basic food and clothing needs.
• Rent or Mortgage
• Utilities (electricity, water, internet, cable subscription etc.)
• Insurance premiums.
• Charitable contributions.
It looks simple enough but in my experience putting all committed expenses into 60% of my income was a tough thing to do. But don’t give up as it is very possible to achieve this.
The Rule (40%)
The other half of the equation is the 40% which is divided into four 10% categories.
• Retirement: Money set aside into your IRA or 401(k) plans.
• Long-term savings: Money set aside for car purchases, major home repairs, or to pay down debts such as credit cards, mortgages, etc.
• Irregular expenses: Vacations, car repairs, new appliances, etc.
• Fun money: The great part! Do anything you want with this money! Just be sure that this category applies to your whole family such as dining out, a day in the mall shopping, your hobbies etc. But also remember that having fun with your friends, children and family does not have to be costly!
What to Ask Yourself
• Are you renting a place or have a mortgage that you cannot afford? Is it worth it move to a smaller place or farther place to save up? How much money will you save if you do so?
• Are your car payments too high? How is the fuel consumption of your car?
• Do you have too many paid subscriptions that you don’t really use? (Satellite TV, club memberships etc.)
• What is your lifestyle like? How much do you spend in a week, eating out, going on trips etc?
• Do you wear designer clothes? Where do you shop?
• Can you afford to get your coffee or lunch at a cheaper place?
In this article I am going to address a common complaint that we’ve seen ABS investors have: that when they’re putting together systems, too much automation creates a “black box” which then doesn’t permit the user to adjust the data in the manner in which they see fit.
Let’s face it, traders are on the front lines evaluating complex securities such as ABS bonds and the more you can permit users to take the data and create useful models that don’t “lock them into a particular view” of what’s being traded, the better it will be. Most often, traders build their own spreadsheets and, in general, do a great job. However, the lack of ability to dynamically communicate with a database of securities information can cause a great deal of trouble in the ABS market, if only when the next month’s data set comes out from trustees and they find themselves scrambling to manually update their spreadsheets.
Additionally, IT departments blanche at the thought of those overly flexible, manipulable spreadsheets that defy “systemization”. In this article we will discuss a specific example and how to satisfy the needs of both areas: IT and the Trading Desk.
Let’s take up the subject of “Credit IO’s”.
Definition: A Credit IO is an ABS bond which is sufficiently far down in the Capital Structure of an ABS deal that, based on the level of collateral defaults and loss severities that the market is currently experiencing, cause an investor to NOT expect any payment of principal.
Assumption: the bond’s principal WILL be written down to zero at some point. The investor expects NOT to get any principal back. However, until that point, the bond can earn interest cash flows therefore it’s an “Interest Only” bond.
Key Factor: Loss timing. Between now and precisely WHEN the bond is fully written down, the bond will be earning interest. Those monthly cash flows are worth something. The faster the bond will be written down, the less interest cash will be received. The longer the bond exists, the longer the bond will receive cash flows. The trick is to figure out when the losses will hit the bond. The timing of the losses will therefore have a dramatic effect on the price that an investor should be willing to pay for the bond. Less time until the fully-written down point = lower price.
So let’s take a look at some of the elements relating to the data side of this. Here are some of the relevant points:
2. Foreclosure and REO timelines
3. Loss Severities to be used in determining how much of each loan will be lost due to defaults.
4. Credit Enhancements levels – primarily overcollateralization (OC) and each tranche’s current level of credit support (how much of the capital structure is supporting the particular tranche(s) we are evaluating).
On a Bloomberg you can bring up a simplistic method of evaluating this by typing an ABS cusip followed by the Mortgage key (F3) and then typing “MTCS” . This gives you the ability to take the deal’s current level of 60 day and 90 day delinquencies and apply a particular percentage of each that you expect to go through to default. The amounts of loans in Foreclosure (FC) and Real Estate Owned (REO) are assumed to be 100% in default. So we have as an example:
Table % % that will default default amt
% of Deal 60+ Day Delinq 8% 60% 4.8%
% of Deal 90+ Day Delinq 5% 70% 3.5%
% of Deal in FC 3.5% 100% 3.5%
% of Deal in REO 2.5% 100% 2.5%
For a total of 14.3% that we expect to end up in full default and thereby experience a loss.
Sum those figures up (14.3%) and multiply by a single loss severity input and you will have the approx amount of the deal that you will experience as a loss. Let’s say we use 50% Loss Severity. That will give us 7.15% of the outstanding collateral balance in the deal that we expect to impact the deal’s capital structure in the form of losses. Compare that amount versus the particular bond’s credit support that you’re evaluating and if you have a ratio (called the “Coverage Ratio” on Bloomberg), that is less than 1.00, then that bond is likely to disappear completely because there is simply not enough support for the bond to survive. Anyone with access to a Bloomberg can do the above. The above doesn’t actually try to predict WHEN the losses will occur – only that they are expected to occur at some point in the future. It also does not let you consider future loans that are current on their mortgage payments or are 30 days delinquent that will come down the “pipeline” into the more severely delinquent states and finally into realized losses. It also doesn’t try to tell you what it all means in terms of a “price” that you might be willing to pay for the bond.
So let’s kick this up a notch.
Loan-Level Delinquency information
First of all, let’s assume that we have access to loan-level information and that we know, not only the current delinquency status of each loan but exactly when the loan entered that status. Intex provides good loan level data for deals from about 2006 and onwards. Loan Performance provides loan-level information for all deals – loan level information is generally what Loan Performance is known for (but they don’t have very good data about the capital structures nor can they do really good cash flows on the bonds as Intex does). The point is that loan-level delinquency information is available.
So let’s retrieve all the loans from a particular deal into a spreadsheet from our database of loan-level information. Ideally, this should be automated from within the spreadsheet so we can always refresh the data whenever we need to ensure that it is representative of the most current data in our database.
We now have our hands on which loans are in which delinquency condition. Now, if we simplistically project out maximum timelines that all the loans will experience in FC and REO before they hit their loss point, we can derive a table of months going forward and WHEN those losses will be experienced.
For example, we can state the following:
A. Let’s say that a loan has been in FC for two months already: Let’s permit 6 months for the total “normal” amount of time that a loan is going to be in FC so that there are expected to be 4 months more of FC time for this particular loan. Then permit 6 months more for the full REO process. This means that month 10 is WHEN we expect the loss to hit.
B. Let’s say that a loan is currently in REO and has been so for 4 months. Permitting 6 months of complete REO time suggests that we have 2 more months to go. So 2 months from now is when we think we will realize a loss on this loan.
C. Let’s say that a loan has just become 90 days delinquent for the first time. They’re probably going to be in FC real soon, but maybe we feel that we should allow an additional month of being 90 days delinq. So we would have 1 more month of 90 days delinquency. A full 6 months of FC and 6 months of REO so that we expect the loss to hit in month 13.
We can continue to do the above for 60 days delinq loans and 30 day delinq loans. And possibly take some current loans based on the idea that some of these will also hit the skids.
Let’s assume an overall “Loss Severity” of 60%. According to some market participants 60% is getting more and more real. This means that, given a loan amount of $100,000 you are expecting to lose $60,000. Apply the loss severity input to each of the loan balances and sum those loss amounts up into each of the months you have projected into the future.
The result is that you end up with a table of months into the future within which losses can be summed up – month by month. At that point we have a relatively simplistic table giving us WHEN we expect the losses to hit. These losses will be applied to the bond’s outstanding balance and will eventually “amortize” the bond’s principal, via write-downs, down to zero. At each month, you calculate what amount of interest the bond should receive. Then we apply the loss amount for that month and decrease the bond’s outstanding principal balance so that in the next month there will, of course, be less interest earned. We keep doing this until the bond’s balance has been written down to zero, at which point you’re not earning any more interest on the bond. At that point, the bond has disappeared. Then sum up the interest payments that you received during the time when the bond was still “alive” and you have the amount of cash you’re going to receive on this bond. Divide that by the principal currently outstanding on the bond and you have the price that might be indicative of what you would be willing to pay. Notice that this last sentence is disregarding the time value of money. It can be an enhancement to “present value” (PV) those interest cash flows and then sum up the PV-ed cash flows to get a more accurate price.
It should be noted that if there is any “OC” remaining at the bottom of the capital structure in the deal, you have to allocate the loss amounts to the OC first before they start to impact the bond you’re evaluating. Likewise if there are any bonds BELOW the one you’re evaluating, because of the fact that losses are allocated from the bottom of the capital structure upwards, then each of those bonds below your bond each have to be written down to zero before the loss amounts start to impact your particular bond. The point being that your spreadsheet application must retrieve all of the bonds and any OC BELOW your bond and apply the loss amounts to EACH of their principal outstanding amounts BEFORE the losses start to impact your particular bond. Of course, this means that ALL of the bonds below the one you’re evaluating are also, each one, a “Credit IO” bond.
A few other observations
I want to emphasize that decreasing the FC and REO timelines in the model will have the impact of decreasing the amount of time that the bonds will survive thereby decreasing the length of time that the bonds will earn interest resulting in a lower price that one would be willing to pay for the bond. Obviously, if you’re buying you want to pay as low as possible so underestimating time lines will help you. If you’re selling, you’ll probably want to consider that the time lines are longer so that you can sell it for a higher price. These are the normal competitive sort of interests in the market place.
The above represents a simplistic model but one which gives a much greater degree of flexibility than the Bloomberg MTCS function. Done correctly, it also permits the user to adjust the time lines and severities to ones which they feel comfortable with when evaluating “Credit IO’s”.
Also, by keeping all of the above factors in mind, the user/trader can still perform the analysis in the way that they see fits best for the environment they’re in. They’re not “locked” into a “black box” which they can’t see inside of. There are, of course, much more extensive features that can be built into such a model which are not within the scope of this article.
They are usually red and waterproof. You may have seen them on many lifeguards, but have you ever wondered: what’s exactly inside a lifeguard fanny pack?
Lifeguards have a big responsibility on their hands. They must be ready to intervene at any time: their alertness, and the equipment they carry with them, is actively saving lives!
While on duty, a lifeguard will most frequently use his whistle. The whistle that a lifeguard carries on a lanyard around his neck must be waterproof, and loud enough to be heard above the pool noise.
He will always have with him a rescue tube or a rescue board, and a first aid kit. It is the first aid kit that is the content of a lifeguard fanny pack!
The contents of a lifeguard fanny pack focus on emergencies that require his immediate attention. A lifeguard fanny pack will typically contain an adult and pediatric Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) breathing mask, sterile pads, an absorbent compress (roller gauze) or triangular bandage, gloves, and antiseptic wipes.
These items will provide a lifeguard with all that he needs for initial care of an unresponsive victim, until other lifeguards bring larger first aid kit and other equipment to the scene. If necessary, a lifeguard fanny pack can go into the water with him.
Whenever a lifeguard administers first aid, he will wear gloves from his first aid kit. He will apply a body isolation substance on the victim, and use the antiseptic wipes for local disinfection.
When administering mouth-to-mouth resuscitation, a lifeguard will place a CPR mask over the victim’s nose and mouth. Antiseptic wipes from his first aid kit can be used to sterilize the mask.
There should be enough gauze in the fanny pack for a lifeguard to control the bleeding or other trauma, until other lifeguards get more supplies or the 911 arrives. Triangle bandages can be used to create slings and splints in case of a bone breakage.
CPR masks are usually packed in white triangular cases, so they can be fitted inside the fanny pack. Sterile items such as adhesive bandages, gauze pads, or roller gauze, must be sealed in waterproof protection. If possible, they should not be taken into the water at all. They are of no use to the victim while still in the water, and they could be accidentally contaminated.
The job of a lifeguard is to keep everyone safe. A lifeguard fanny pack is the best way to have with him at all times all the necessities he needs to do just that.